Energy

Wed, 08/12/2009 - 15:40

It will be necessary for China to start lowering its carbon emissions within the next 10 to 20 years to keep it contribution to global warming in check. In a recent study, British researchers looked into how China could transform its economy over the next four decades so its carbon emissions might eventually begin to fall. One of the key questions that researchers confronted was whether China can avoid the problem of "carbon lock-in." In an interview with Interfax, Dr. Tao Wang, one of the study's authors, explains how China can head off the problem of carbon lock-in in order to curtail its emissions growth while meeting its goals for economic development.

Dr. Tao Wang, a research fellow at both the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the Sussex Energy Group for Science and Technology Policy Research (SPRU) at the University of Sussex

Shanghai. August 12. INTERFAX-CHINA - For countries seeking to reduce their carbon emissions, the problem with coal-fired power plants is not that they can be inefficient, or even dirty. The problem is that they are built to last. 

A typical coal-fired power plant stays in operation for 40 to 60 years. But the problem of a thermal power plant's long lifespan goes beyond increasing a country's carbon footprint for decades. It can also hold back a country from more aggressively developing or investing in other sources of energy, said Dr. Tao Wang, a research fellow at both the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the Sussex Energy Group for Science and Technology Policy Research (SPRU) at the University of Sussex.

The problem is known as "carbon lock-in," and though Wang used coal-fired power plants as an example, the problem can affect all energy sources.

Carbon lock-in is "characterized by dependence on carbon-intensive energy systems, infrastructure and social economic structures that are difficult to change," according to the study that Wang co-authored, called "China's Energy Transition - Pathways for Low Carbon Development."

The purpose of the three-year study was to look into the possible future paths China might take to slow its carbon emissions growth and eventually enter a period of declining emissions. In the study, the authors developed four scenarios that might occur as China makes the transition. The scenarios each had different emissions targets and made different assumptions about how China's economy will develop between now and 2050.

Wang believes that carbon lock-in can be avoided with careful government planning. "You need to have a very clear roadmap," he said.

"To avoid lock-in, we have to admit that China is still going to rely on coal for electricity generation for decades to come," he said. "We can reduce it, but we cannot replace it in the short term. So we have to think about how to reduce the carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants."

One option is carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), Wang said. "When you build a new coal-fired power plant, you have to think about leaving space for the CCS to be retrofitted in the future when the technology becomes more mature," he said. "That is one way to minimize lock-in."

Another way is for China to encourage the development of alternative energy sources.

"I think the government is aware of this as it has already developed an ambitious set of development targets for renewable energy, including solar, wind and nuclear power," Wang said.

The problem of carbon lock-in also has a socio-economic aspect, which can be illustrated by the carbon-intensive lifestyles of many people in western countries.

"People from poor areas or poor families in China see the lifestyle of people in rich areas like Shanghai and Beijing and believe that it is the model way to live," Wang said. "So, in the future, they will follow the same patterns and get locked into the same behavior."

Wang believes that this facet of carbon lock-in, which primarily affects energy consumption in the household and transportation sectors, is much more difficult to reverse.

"For physical lock in, you can just make new investments and decommission some of the old power plants, but people's lifestyles and their consumption patterns are very difficult to change," he said.

In the end, social lock-in may be the greater obstacle to reducing carbon emissions as household and transportation sectors will each grow to between 30 percent and 35 percent of total energy consumption in 2050, similar to the proportion of industry, according to the study.

"The fact that all four scenarios lead to similar energy structures by 2050 illustrates the significant future importance of controlling energy demand growth in the household and transportation sectors," the study said.

There is some hope that social lock-in may be avoidable. According to the study, a recent survey revealed a strong correlation between knowing about climate change and participating in activities to protect the environment, adding that there is little time to waste.

"It is important to start addressing it now to avoid social carbon lock-in," the study said.